Monday, July 21, 2008

India's Economy Hits the Wall?

What happened to the speed train that India Inc. was supposed to be on? Did we miss it?
The headlines of the main story in a recent business week starts off with "India's Economy Hits a Wall".

Now such articles and news are not necessarily what I was looking forward to right after a big move across continents.

Well, inflation is in the double digits, but what does that mean? In the US the and other developed countries the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to calculate inflation whereas in India the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is used for the rate of inflation. So there could potentially be some or even a major discrepancy in the meaning and impact of this double digit inflation number. Does this mean we disregard this inflation number and assume that the situation might not be as bad as its portrayed? Or on the other hand, is it a lot worse?

Meanwhile, how does this inflation rise, the lack of investments in infrastructure, the oil crisis and other global slowdowns directly impact a local or me (its hard to separate out all these issues)?

a. Diesel shortage in the city. Long lines at gas stations and rationed diesel is a common sight. Several people in India have diesel run cars as diesel is cheaper and gives better mileage.
b. Black outs ie power outages between 11am-3pm everyday in most parts of Hyderabad (this has not directly impacted us a lot because the entire housing area has full power backup. However, the backup power runs on diesel and diesel is in short supply, so there have been instances where we have had outages too).
c. Retail prices of grains, food etc. are on the rise, but I don't have the data points to compare the % increase and its impact.
d. The stock market has tanked and is still on a bear run (or fall as the case may be) leaving several investors way under water. Several IT companies have slower growth and their valuations have tanked.
e. The global slowdown will directly impact jobs, salaries and overall growth in services, retail, financial services, IT sector etc.
f. Airlines are grounding planes because of the fuel crisis and transportation costs have gone up significantly. I now pay double the price for airfare between local Indian cities. I also pay more for the school bus.
g. I'll stop here for now...

Its amazing how people just go about their business and don't let any of these shortages (water, electricity, diesel, broadband, cooking gas etc.) affect them. There is something to learn from this attitude and ability to adjust.

All this still doesn't answer my question about the fast train.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Mamtha

Cool blog !
We just got back from India, took 1complete week to recover from the jetlag!! I was wondering how you managed so many trips back n forth ..

I guess Indian economy is just echoing what is happening elsewhere, starting with the US of course. My grocery bill has doubled here. Gas prices affecting the food prices, not to mention floods in Iowa etc Also friends with SUVs come visting in their other smaller car now :) Even the vans are being left at home in preference to the sedans. I see the Microsoft Connector buses everywhere, so more Microsoftees are opting for commuting this way.

I saw lots of good changes in Mumbai since my trip last year. A new terminal has opened at the airport. Also drop-offs at Departure are better managed with cars being asked to move out fairly quickly. Road signs/directions are getting better and better. Many more flyovers under construction. Pune continues to be as clogged as ever though (maybe even more) ...

Keep writing ...